One of the talking points of the anti-solar forces is that Germany gets “only 3%” from solar investing all those feed-in tariffs. That can be found for example in the latest anti-solar SPIEGEL article I blogged about here.
One counter to that is to point out that “only 3%” doesn’t sound like much, until you find out that this amounts to more than 18 TWh, which is enough to power many nations many times over. I did as much in a post discussing Mark Lynas’ position here.
However, actually, that “3%” figure is rather misleading in the first place. There are a couple of facts that need to be known when discussing solar’s market share.
For one, looking at a recent paper from Fraunhofer (at page 13) one sees that solar easily covers up to 20 percent of demand, and does so exactly at the time slots of peak demands. In other words, while solar might contribute “only” 18 TWh a year right now, those come exactly when needed most.
While it is true that there is no photovoltaic solar generation at night, that doesn’t matter much, since there would not be any demand for it in the first place.
That Fraunhofer paper also explains (page 12) that 98% of solar electricity is consumed so near at the source that there is no need for feeding it into the high voltage far distance grid, which saves a lot of transmission costs.
The clueless and harmful Spiegel article was not completely without merit, since it produced this excellent response by Craig Morris. I highly recommend reading that. It points out these highly relevant facts:
But to fully understand what we are talking about, we need to focus on some figures – not the retail power rate or the feed-in tariffs for PV, but installed PV capacity in relation to peak power demand. At the end of 2011, Germany had installed some 25,000 megawatts of photovoltaics, 15,000 of it installed in 2010 and 2011 alone. The country has peak power demand around the end of November at 80,000 megawatts, a figure that falls towards 60,000 megawatts in the summer and may even drop close to 50,000 on summer weekends and holidays.
No one in their right mind would argue that we can continue to install 7,500 megawatts a year given those figures for peak power demand. Think about it: 20 years of that level (solar panels currently have 25-year warranties) would lead to 150,000 megawatts of installed capacity – nearly 3 times greater than peak demand in the summer. Even if that 150,000 megawatts of solar only generally peaked at 100,000 megawatts of actual production in real-world circumstances, we would be throwing away a lot of power, and all of our other power generators – including wind turbines – would not be useful.
At summer peak power demand of 60 GW, the already installed 25 GW of solar is rather more than 3%. And if installations should proceed at the same speed for only a couple of years more, there will soon be no demand left to take up all that solar electricity.
The problem, in other words, is not that solar capacity in Germany is still too small after all those investments. The problem is that there will soon be not enough demand to take up all the supply.
That of course calls for more storage solutions, a topic I have discussed frequently here. My favorite idea is having some silicon production facilities ready on standby to kick in with extra production whenever demand is insufficient.
That way, the solar panels already installed would sort of breed their offspring, lowering panel prices even more in the process.