They have just published an overview for their new Energy Outlook, which explains their view on the long term energy developments.
The first bit of good news is that the world will only emit 10 percent more CO2 compared to today, even with a 25 percent population growth. They see emissions peaking sometime in the 2030s and declining from then on.
They also assume a whopping 4 percent of energy coming from wind, solar and biofuels in 2040.
If you are worried about climate change, “only 10 percent more in 2040” is not actually the goal you would want to be looking for. The EU has set a goal of minus 40 percent compared to 1990 already for 2030. That’s probably still not enough, but at least a step in the correct direction.
That “4 percent in 2040” target for wind, solar, and biomass also seems rather on the low side. Solar just became the cheapest option for generating electricity this year.
From a climate point of view, these kind of numbers would be a disaster.
But there is one bit of good news:
Even Exxon accepts the need to discuss CO2 in their reports. They don’t deny the problem any more.