I am reading the European Union “Energy Roadmap 2050″ that has been published a couple of days ago on the Commission website.
One point I want to highlight in this post is their completely off base assumption about the capital cost of photovoltaic solar. The “Staff Working Paper” has a graph on page 67 which sees those costs at 4023 Euro per kW, decreasing to 2678 in 2020, to 1710 in 2030 and to 1366 in 2050.
That is in contrast to reports from the Stiftung Warentest I blogged about in October that say average cost for small rooftop solar is 2360 Euro per kW in Germany. That beats the Commission prediction for 2020 by a large margin! And it does so for the more costly small units.
This failure might be explained by the fact that these calculations have been done over a time frame of two years and prices were much higher way back in 2010. However, it still looks somewhat embarrassing for the Commission to assume prices that are so way off base compared to the real world.